Unusual Naval Activity Article from

Urban Survival Site

Is "Snowball" a Coincidence?

Executive Summary:

A supposed intercept of a U.S. military SSB radio transmission on 26 January of this year referred to a mysterious "countdown" to an unnamed event which (by the countdown) will occur around June 19 or 20 of this year. In the past few weeks, however, naval units  worldwide have been putting to sea in unusual numbers, sufficient to cause us to revisit the original message to assess movements and adopt a watch mode going forward into the June 19-20 date area.



I was not planning on doing a special weekend report but four things happened that prompt me to share some speculation with you.  The four items?


"Want to be paranoid about something akin to Planet X showing up before November?  Here's a snip which I received by email yesterday - a bit aged, but interesting nevertheless:

A member of our ham radio club intercepted this transmission and shared it with a few of us. He made a digital recording of it. The transmissions took place on 1-26-04 staring at 0:5:00 UTC. The frequency was 11.176 mhz, USB.

The conversation is between SNOWBALL NET and another station. We assume SNOWBALL is the network operator.

Here is a transcript:

SNOWBALL NET: Snowball Net comms check. All stations, clock sync, (pause) impact at minus 146 days, 5 hours UTC. Standby for ACC link (could have been ACD).

Burst of digital data¦

Burrow: SNOWBALL This is BURROW (could be Burro as in donkey). You are not secure¦repeat not secure¦go green¦go green¦

Bursts of white noise follow for approximately 3 minutes.

Copies of this have been posted on several ham boards and have been sent to Popular Communications Magazine.

OK, so that by itself is curious, although the author may have been hoaxing (or breaking provisions of the Communications Act of 1933 rules about unauthorized disclosure of third-party traffic, but we'll assuming hoaxing, right?  But now add a second data point to this, the odd story of British military cavers being trapped in Mexico reported at http://news.lycos.com/news/forms/printstory.asp?section=Science&storyId=840084



This British military in Mexico caves story has us wondering what the military guys are doing in caves?  And who packs in that much provisions that 5-days under is no big deal?  And what are those "military notebooks" they are shredding?  Say what?


If one was truly paranoid, they would look at the combination of the two events and synthesize that "Hey, something is causing governments all over the world to act like they know something very bad is about to happen to the whole planet and they are looking for caves (or building underground bases) to be ready to survive whatever it is that is coming (in June).


Easy enough to write off as a wild "mind game" until we recall how close the rock Toutatis will be in September (remember that Earth is within the margin of error on Toutatis orbital projections) and then there's this one:

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/japan-muses-c-04b.html Unknown, of course, is whether there is something else "out there" which has been captured by a government "blink lab" - we'd probably never hear about it if there was.


You don't know what a blink lab is?  That's where NASA and other organizations take a picture of space, then take another picture of the same point in space a bit later.  Whatever has moved (like a rogue planet or asteroid) can be readily seen by "blinking" between the two pictures...


No, we're not that paranoid about it, but we have been monitoring the Air Force 11.175 MHz USB frequency and wonder who the Burrow is...and no, it's not Barrow (as in Alaska)."

"Link quote, "JUST WHY IS IT THAT Nearly our Entire Naval Fleet, have unprecedented orders to leave for the Oceans?

AND, they aren't alone. At least parts of Iran, Australia, China, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam are going too. Makes me want to find out where the British Navy is holing up these days. And what of the Russians? hmmm.... Does anyone ever stay home and protect their own borders anymore? Isn't that what they are supposed to be doing? Something is very, very fishy here!"

It turns out the Brits are putting to sea, too.  More on that in a few moments....


What Pieces Would Fit?


If it happened - out of some bizarre circumstance that there was indeed something "real" about the supposed radio interception - then what would we look for prior to an event such as an impact from something falling out of space?  Here's my list, which you can compare with your own ideas about how you would prepare for such an event:

Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsuintro.shtml
Database: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsrnsrch_idb.shtml

Tsunamis, commonly called seismic sea waves--or incorrectly, tidal waves--have been responsible for at least 470 fatalities and several hundred million dollars in property damage in the United States and its territories. These events are somewhat rare. Major tsunamis occur in the Pacific Ocean region only about once per decade. Therefore, it is important to learn as much as possible from the relatively short history available.

The preparation of this history was undertaken because of the evident need for an up-to-date and comprehensive compilation. The previously available history of tsunamis in the United States and environs was scattered through several regional catalogs, research papers, and unpublished works. The continued research of several people has improved these now-dated catalogs. The present history incorporated all works known to the compilers into a single, comprehensive volume.

"Tsunami" is a Japanese word meaning "harbor wave." It is a water wave or a series of waves generated by an impulsive vertical displacement of the surface of the ocean or other body of water. Other terms for "tsunami" found in the literature include: seismic sea wave, Flutwellen, vloedgolven, raz de mare, vagues sismique, maremoto, and, incorrectly, tidal wave. The term "tidal wave" is frequently used in the older literature and in popular accounts, but is now considered incorrect. Tides are produced by the gravitational attraction of the sun and moon and occur predictably with twelve hour periods. The effects of a tsunami may be increased or decreased depending on the level of the tide, but otherwise the two phenomena are independent.

Although there are warning systems for tsunamis occurring around the Pacific, including local and regional warning systems in Hawaii and Alaska, the risks from future tsunamis are still not fully known. Some events, such as that in Prince William Sound, Alaska, in March 1964, can be devastating over large distances. Even over short distances along a coast, the heights of a tsunami wave will vary considerably. An important part of the risk assessment is to gain a clearer understanding of the effects of past tsunamis.

Worldwide Occurrence of Tsunamis Tsunamis have been reported since ancient times. They have been documented extensively, especially in Japan and the Mediterranean areas. The first recorded tsunami occurred off the coast of Syria in 2000 B.C. Since 1900 (the beginning of instrumentally located earthquakes), most tsunamis have been generated in Japan, Peru, Chile, New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. However, the only regions that have generated remote-source tsunamis affecting the entire Pacific Basin are the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Alaska, and the coast of South America. Hawaii, because of its location in the center of the Pacific Basin, has experienced tsunamis generated in all parts of the Pacific.

The Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas both have small subduction zones, and have histories of locally destructive tsunamis. Only a few tsunamis have been generated in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. In the Atlantic Ocean, there are no subduction zones at the edges of plate boundaries to spawn such waves except small subduction zones under the Caribbean and Scotia arcs. In the Indian Ocean, however, the Indo-Australian plate is being subducted beneath the Eurasian plate at its east margin. Therefore, most tsunamis generated in this area are propagated toward the southwest shores of Java and Sumatra, rather than into the Indian Ocean.

Tsunami Characteristics Most tsunamis are caused by a rapid vertical movement along a break in the Earth's crust (i.e., their origin is tectonic). A tsunami is generated when a large mass of earth on the bottom of the ocean drops or rises, thereby displacing the column of water directly above it. This type of displacement commonly occurs in large subduction zones, where the collision of two tectonic plates causes the oceanic plate to dip beneath the continental plate to form deep ocean trenches. Most

Subduction occurs along most of the island arcs and coastal areas of the Pacific, the notable exception being the west coast of the United States and Canada. Movement along the faults there is largely strike-slip, having little vertical displacement, and the movement produces few local tsunamis.

Volcanoes have generated significant tsunamis with death tolls as large as 30,000 people from a single event. Roughly one fourth of the deaths occurring during volcanic eruptions where tsunamis were generated, were the result of the tsunami rather than the volcano. A tsunami is an effective transmitter of energy to areas outside the reach of the volcanic eruption itself. The most efficient methods of tsunami generation by volcanoes include disruption of a body of water by the collapse of all or part of the volcanic edifice, subsidence, an accompanying or preceding the eruption. Roughly one-half of all volcanic tsunamis are generated at calderas or at cones within calderas. Submarine eruptions may also cause minor tsunamis.

Locally destructive tsunamis may be generated by subaerial and submarine landslides into bays or lakes. Lituya Bay, Alaska, has been the site of several landslide-generated tsunamis, including one in 1958 that produced a splash wave that removed trees to a height of 525 m. It also caused a tsunami of at least 50 m in the bay. The 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake triggered at least four submarine landslides, which accounted for 71 to 82 of the 106 fatalities in Alaska for the 1964 event. However, it is tectonic earthquake-generated tsunamis (those produced by a major deformation of Earth's crust) that may affect the entire Pacific Basin.

Other possible but less efficient methods of tsunami generation include: strong oscillations of the bottom of the ocean, or transmission of energy to a column of water from a seismic impulse (e.g., a deep-focus earthquake that has no surface rupture); transmission of energy from a horizontal seismic impulse to the water column through a vertical or inclined wall such as a bathymetric ridge; strong turbidity currents; underwater and above-water explosions. Several mechanisms commonly are involved in the generation of a tsunami (e.g., vertical movement of the crust by a seismic impulse or an earthquake, and a submarine landslide).

Our knowledge of tsunami generation is incomplete, because the generation phenomena has not been observed nor measured directly. However, studies of tsunami data suggest that the size of a tsunami is directly related to: the shape of the rupture zone, the rate of displacement and sense of motion of the ocean-floor in the source (epicentral) area, the amount of displacement of the rupture zone, and the depth of the water in the source area.

It is also observed that long-period tsunamis are generated by large-magnitude earthquakes associated with seafloor deformation of the continental shelf; while, shorter period tsunamis are generated by smaller magnitude earthquakes associated with seafloor deformation in deeper water beyond the continental shelf.

Once the energy from an undersea disturbance has been transmitted to the column of water, the wave can propagate outward from the source at a speed of more than 1,000 km per hour depending on the depth of the water. Because the height of the long-period waves in the open ocean is commonly 1 m or less and their wavelength is hundreds of kilometers, they pass unnoticed by observers in ships or planes in the velocity of its waves is reduced, and the height of each wave increases. The waves pile up on shore especially in the region of the earthquake source, producing a "local tsunami." Some dramatic examples of such local tsunamis include those generated by landslides or by volcanic eruptions, which have caused "runup" heights of 30 to 50 m in some coastal areas.

"Runup" is the maximum height of the water observed above a reference sea level. Two other terms may be determined from the runup value: (1) tsunami magnitude, which is defined (Iida and others, 1967) as

m = log2H and (2) tsunami intensity, which is defined (Soloviev and Go, 1974) as

I = log2(21/2 * H), where H in both equations is the maximum runup height of the wave.

If the energy produced by the generating disturbance is sufficiently large, such as that released by a major deformation of the crust in a trench area, the resulting tsunami wave may cross the open ocean and emerge as a destructive wave many thousands of kilometers from its source. The severity of a tsunami of this type--called a "remote-observed and perhaps cause damage throughout the Pacific Ocean Basin (e.g., the Chile tsunami of May 1960).

Radiation of a remote-source tsunami from the focus of an earthquake is directional, depending on the geometry of the seafloor in the source region. The source region for major tectonic earthquakes is usually elliptical, and the major axis is as much as 600 km long and corresponds to the activated part of the fault. The major part of the tsunami energy is transmitted at right angles to the direction of the major axis, both toward the near shore and along a great circle path toward the shore on the opposite side of the ocean. Thus, tsunamis in Chile have severe impact on Japan; and those in the Gulf of Alaska on the west coast of North America. Hawaii, which lies in the central Pacific Basin, is vulnerable to remote-source tsunamis generated both in the North Pacific and along the coast of South America.

The velocity (V) of a tsunami in the open ocean is expressed as the product of the square root of the depth of the water (d) and the acceleration of the force of gravity (g).

V = (dg)1/2 Because the speed of the tsunami depends on the depth of the ocean basin, the waves decrease in speed as they reach shallower water. The wavelength is shortened, the energy within each wave is crowded into progressively less water, increasing the height of the wave. The tsunami may increase in height from 1 m in the open ocean to more than 20 m during runup. Also, if underwater ridges are present, they may act as collecting lenses and further intensify the tsunami.

If the tsunami encounters a coastal scarp, the height of its waves increases. Because the long-period wave can bend around obstacles, the tsunami can enter bays and gulfs having the most intricate shapes. Experience has shown that wave heights increase in bays that narrow from the entrance to the head, but decrease in bays that have narrow entrances. Shores of islands protected by coral reefs commonly receive less energy than unprotected coastlines lying in the direct path of an approaching tsunami. Islands in a group may "shadow" one another reducing the tsunami effect. Small islands may experience reduced runup as the tsunami waves may refract around them.

A tsunami wave may break on the beach, appear as flooding, or form a "bore"(violent rush of water with an abrupt front) as it moves up a river or stream. When the trough of the wave arrives first, the water level drops rapidly. Where this occurs the harbor or offshore area may be drained of its water, exposing sea life and ocean bottom. This phenomenon may be the only warning to residents that a large tsunami is approaching. Fatalities have occurred where people have tried to take advantage of this situation to gather fish or explore the strange landscape. The wave returns to cover the exposed coastline faster than the people can run. Although there may be an interval of minutes--or perhaps an hour--between the arrival of waves, the second, third, or later waves can be more destructive than the first. Residents returning too soon to the waterfront, assuming that the worst has past, represent another kind of preventable fatalities.

While the NOAA site focuses on the idea of tsunamis being caused by undersea slippage of earth, the impact from a large scale extraterrestrial object would probably be similar, although the front of the wave would be "sharper" and move at a higher velocity.

Exercises "Blinding Storm" & "Aurora"

(San Diego)  Now, this is where naval things get interesting.  Let's go through a list of which countries are putting navies to sea for the month of June and remember that this might all be normal, but in times of tight budgets and high fuel prices, it seems a bit odd that so many countries are putting to sea for the next month.  Take the U.S. naval group's departure from San Diego.  What's the official story of the 6,000+ sailors leaving Monday?

"Both the National Training Center and Fort Polk's Joint Readiness Training Center will remain open, the officials said, with National Guard soldiers expected to fill in for the units going to Iraq.

The Navy said Tuesday that it is sending a second aircraft carrier, the USS John C. Stennis, into the western Pacific, apparently to compensate in part for the planned deployment to Iraq this summer of an Army combat brigade based in South Korea.

The Stennis, which left its San Diego home port Monday, will participate in an exercise off Alaska in June and then join the USS Kitty Hawk, which is permanently based in Japan, in the western Pacific."  Link

(Norfolk) a local television station in Norfolk reports that a total of seven carrier strike groups are putting to sea in June - which if I'm not mistaken is an unprecedented move: "While the Navy won't say where the seven carrier groups are going, the carriers not already deployed are expected to be gone for only one to two months."  Story (RealPlayer needed) at http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=1902088&nav=23iiNU2h


(England)  The British are also putting an unusual number of ships to sea during June.  http://www.navynews.co.uk/articles/2004/0405/0004052601.asp  Meantime, Channel 13 in Hampton Roads, VA reports in part that:

"Called "Exercise Blinding Storm" by the United States and "Exercise Rapid Alliance" by the U.K., the training will involve about 30,000 troops from seven nations in exercises off and on the coast of North Carolina.

Dutch marines and French soldiers will take part, as well as a Peruvian submarine and contingents from Germany and Canada. The flotilla is expected to set sail Tuesday, with the two-week amphibious exercise scheduled to begin June 10.

The British landing platform dock ship Albion has already arrived. It carried four Challenger II battle tanks — the British equivalent of the U.S. M1-A1 Abrams tank. The tanks will be sent ashore aboard the ship's new landing craft during the exercise.

The biggest British ship — the aircraft carrier Invincible — also has docked with a crew of 1,050. "

We find the names of the exercises interesting.  Blinding Storm might be construed to mean that people can't see something that's right in front of them (we wonder if there is a chemtrails angle to all this?) and Aurora has something to do with electricity in the atmosphere at high latitudes... but that's only wild speculation.  What's not wild speculation is that the news coming off the U.S. Carrier Ronald Reagan is constrained: The ship's web site is down for reworking: http://www.reagan.navy.mil/ which is not what I'd expect during a normal exercise....


Moving Leaders to Ships

I'm sure you remember George Bush's landing last year on an aircraft carrier off California.  That was a publicity stunt, to be sure, but might there have been a different agenda?  Perhaps.  Let's suppose, for just a moment that something big really were going to happen and that world leaders would want a rapidly mobile platform to escape to - off land - just in case things got really bad following an impact event.  Wouldn't a nuclear powered aircraft carrier be just the ticket?


If it was only GB-43, it might have been passed off as just a coincidence.  But then we spied a BBC piece about how the Queen of England,  was flown out to the British Carrier Invincible in late April of this year.   In particular, the quote that jumped out of the BBC story at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3662917.stm   that grabbed our attention was this:

"Captain Soar, who is leaving the ship on Friday after being promoted to Rear Admiral at the Ministry of Defence, said: "I can't recall the last time she's visited a ship at sea. I think it will surprise her to see us as a working ship and the best opportunity to do that is at sea. We are running a headquarters afloat really. "

Oh really?  If the Queen was born in 1926, that would make her about 78 years old, an odd age to start wanting to go visiting ships at sea, or so it would seem to us. Moreover, the timing is interesting:  It was in May of 2003 that George Bush did his oft parodied landing on the USS Lincoln. http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/05/01/bush.carrier.landing/  What this would suggest is that if there really is anything to the June 20th date, it is probably something the American scientists of NASA found first, based simply on the observation that GB was the first world leader to go maritime mobile recently.  Makes me wonder what George and Tony really talked about at the ranch...


Participants List:

Countries which are planning significant naval operations for the period of interest include The U.S., England, Canada, Holland, Germany, Peru, Norway, Italy, Denmark, France and Australia.


Russian and other Moves:

We note that while the West is putting to sea in large numbers, the Russians are holding huge exercises which could be a cover for who-knows-what: http://russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=43807  We have heard, but don't have links to share that India, China, and a host of Pacific Rim countries are also planning naval exercises.  If you see something of interest, please send it along by clicking here.


Forward Surveillance

While something as literally earth-shaking as a space rock impact around June 20 is a statistically small chance event, we will nevertheless be keeping our eyes out for other pieces of news that might fit with such a scenario.  Some possibilities:

If you see something that would fit with preparations for a possible impact event, please click here and send us a note for review.


Thanks in advance.


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